Source : INDIA TODAY NEWS
Amidst preparations for the 2027 assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh, the BJP has placed its bets on the duo of Maharashtra’s Vinod Tawde and Gujarat’s Jagdish Ishwarbhai Patel to sharpen its organisational and electoral management.
On August 18, BJP national president Nitin Nabin appointed Tawde as in-charge for Uttar Pradesh and Patel as co-in-charge. Tawde is a BJP national general secretary and a Rajya Sabha member while Patel was recently appointed as a national secretary.
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The decision is being viewed as more than just an organisational reshuffle. The BJP suffered a major setback in UP in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The party’s seats tally dropped from 62 to 33 as the Opposition dented its social coalition by raising issues concerning the Constitution and caste reservation, and pushing the ‘PDA’ (Pichhda, Dalit, Alpsankhyak) narrative.
Consequently, the 2027 polls are not merely about the BJP returning to power in the state for a third term; it is also the first major test in laying the groundwork for the 2029 Lok Sabha elections.
According to political analysts, by entrusting the UP responsibilities to Tawde, the BJP has fielded a leader who views elections as a comprehensive process involving organisation, booth management, social equations and candidate selection. His role in the Bihar polls last year reinforced this perception. Tawde was counted among the key leaders who devised the organisational and social alliance strategies behind the landslide victory of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in Bihar.
However, UP presents a far larger and more complex electoral landscape. The real test for Tawde-Patel will lie in navigating the 403 assembly seats, diverse political priorities ranging from the West to Purvanchal and Bundelkhand, dozens of influential caste groups, internal dissent regarding ticket distribution and organisation, and the challenge posed by the Opposition’s PDA narrative. The question remains: can the strategy employed in Bihar be replicated in UP, and will the duo be able to steer the BJP to power for a third consecutive term?
Will Bihar model work in UP?
Tawde’s greatest asset is his experience in election management. Having been associated with the Akhil Bharatiya Vidyarthi Parishad (ABVP) and Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) since student days, Tawde has traversed a long journey—from handling organisational responsibilities within the Maharashtra BJP and serving as a minister in the state to formulating party strategy at the national level.
Tawde’s work as in-charge for Bihar forms the most significant part of his political identity. After he took charge of Bihar, the BJP faced the challenge of stabilising the organisation and devising a new strategy for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Tawde emphasised on keeping the organisation active at both the booth and assembly constituency levels.
In the general elections, the NDA secured a lead in approximately 175 of Bihar’s 243 assembly segments. Tawde used this data as a strategic foundation for the 2025 assembly elections, and the massive victory validated his strategy. The question now is the extent to which the model that worked in Bihar would prove to be effective in UP.
While social alliances with coalition partners and assembly-wise micro-management were decisive factors in Bihar, the BJP in UP will need to simultaneously balance its organisation, government, alliance partners and diverse social groups. Analysts believe Tawde’s strength lies in the fact that he does not rely solely on the top leadership to fight elections; engaging with grassroots workers, incorporating local feedback and analysing seat-by-seat electoral arithmetic are integral parts of his strategy.
The next organisational change
For Tawde, the immediate priority will be about transforming the organisation into an effective election machinery. Given his role in shaping the state organisation and his active engagement in UP over the past year, he is already considered well-versed in the strengths and weaknesses of the state BJP. Recent organisational reshuffles, including changes within a significant portion of the state unit and the replacement of all six regional presidents, are viewed as part of this broader strategy.
Political analysts believe the BJP’s biggest organisational challenge lies in translating the Yogi Adityanath government’s achievements into active engagement by booth-level workers. The 2024 Lok Sabha elections demonstrated that even with a robust organisation, a disconnect between the candidate, party workers and voters at the local level could lead to significant setbacks.
In this context, ticket distribution would be a highly sensitive issue. There is speculation within the party that a big number of sitting MLAs could be dropped. While the leadership will make the final decision on the extent of these changes, the indications are clear: the BJP is in no mood to underestimate anti-incumbency.
Tawde will need to address several pre-election issues, including local-level resentment against MLAs, infighting among regional leaders and the gap between the organisation and elected representatives. Prioritising local feedback during ticket distribution and replacing underperforming candidates in a timely manner could benefit the party. However, large-scale denial of tickets could also trigger discontent and rebellion. Thus, for Tawde, managing the resulting dissatisfaction could be an even greater challenge than the strategic decision to change tickets itself.
Why Jagdish Patel is significant
The appointment of Patel as co-in-charge conveys a strategic message. Patel has handled organisational responsibilities within the Gujarat BJP and served as an MLA from the Amraiwadi constituency in Ahmedabad district. Considered close to the BJP top leadership, he was noted for his role in managing the party’s election campaign for Varanasi Lok Sabha seat in 2024.
Patel has stated that he has been involved with the party’s operations in UP for several years and will now formally assume this responsibility. His appointment is viewed as complementary to Tawde’s role. While Tawde will focus on broad organisational and electoral strategy, Patel is likely to be tasked with ground-level management, leveraging local networks and navigating the political dynamics of eastern and central UP.
According to political analysts, although the two leaders come from different backgrounds, both possess strong organisational experience. If the organisational discipline of the ‘Gujarat model’ and the electoral management expertise from Maharashtra and Bihar are combined with the social realities of UP, the duo could prove to be highly effective for the party.
However, the challenges ahead are significant. Political analyst Ashutosh Gautam observes: “A model from one state cannot be replicated exactly in UP. The BJP’s organisation in Gujarat has long been exceptionally strong, whereas the caste and regional dynamics in UP are far more complex and multi-layered. Therefore, rather than simply copying the Gujarat strategy, Jagdish Patel will face the challenge of adapting its useful elements to suit the ground realities of UP.”
Adityanth’s image and BJP’s social equation
Chief minister Yogi Adityanath’s image is the BJP’s greatest political asset in UP. The party formed governments under his leadership in 2017 and 2022, and the government’s achievements and his leadership will remain the central pillars of the party’s strategy for 2027 as well. The task for Tawde-Patel will be to translate this political capital into electoral gains at the booth level and leverage social equations effectively.
The 2024 Lok Sabha polls signalled to the BJP that Hindutva and government achievements alone were insufficient. The Opposition’s success with the PDA plank among non-Yadav OBC (Other Backward Classes) and Dalit groups was reflected in the election results. Consequently, the challenge for the BJP in 2027 is not merely to keep its traditional supporters united but also to regain the trust of groups where the opposition gained ground in 2024.
The BJP’s social coalition, comprising Kurmi, Maurya, Shakya, Saini, Nishad, Rajbhar, Jatav and other non-Yadav OBC and Dalit groups, has been the key to its electoral success. However, the Opposition’s sustained social mobilisation and issues related to reservation have created new challenges. Tawde’s background in Maharashtra and his experience with social coalitions in Bihar could prove valuable here.
Keeping NDA allies on board will also be crucial; parties such as the Apna Dal and Nishad Party will have expectations regarding seat allocations and political representation. In 2027, every decision—from seat-sharing to candidate selection—could influence social equations. Therefore, Tawde must strike a balance within the organisation while also maintaining trust among alliance partners.
The question is not whether Tawde and Patel possess the experience to win elections; rather, it is whether they can apply that experience to the complex political landscape of UP. In Bihar, Tawde demonstrated that elections could be analysed through assembly-wise data, social coalitions and organisational networks. But in UP, he has a far complex puzzle to solve.
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SOURCE :- TIMES OF INDIA
