Landry bows out, setting up Canavan showdown with One Nation in Capricornia

Veteran Nationals MP Michelle Landry has announced her resignation from Queensland’s federal seat of Capricornia, paving the way for Nationals’ leader Matt Canavan to move from the Senate to the lower house seat.

Canavan’s potential move to the lower house has long been mooted, but the seat is expected to be hotly contested by One Nation, potentially by the party’s national director James Ashby.

Both Canavan and Ashby live in the Queensland state seat of Yeppoon, which is within the seat of Capricornia and close to the regional city of Rockhampton. Ashby stood for One Nation at the last Queensland election for the state seat of Keppel, which is within the federal seat of Rockhampton.

Announcing her retirement, Landry said she would serve out her term and that she had wanted to give the party plenty of time to find a replacement, while taking a swipe at One Nation for thinking “they can tell me what to do”.

“There’s some people out there that have told me that I need to stand aside and resign so that they can come in, and that’s certainly not Matt. That’s people like our mates in One Nation,” she said.

Canavan, who was first elected to parliament in 2013 alongside Landry, praised her contribution in securing infrastructure such as the Rockhampton hospital car park and added that “Michelle gets into more fights than Mike Tyson down there in Canberra. She’s just always fighting for things, even when people say you can’t do it.”

Contacted after the press conference in Central Queensland, Canavan declined to comment about his own political future because “today is a day to celebrate what Michelle has achieved with her community. It has been remarkable”.

Liberal National Party insiders, both within the party room and beyond, have long expected Canavan to run for the seat of Capricornia, designating him the party’s best hope of staving off One Nation in the ascendant populist party’s heartland.

A source with knowledge of party matters speaking anonymously to share internal discussions said Landry’s personal popularity was a key factor in polling conducted by the party. The veteran MP had turned a once Labor heartland electorate into a safe seat for the Coalition.

But with One Nation on the march, a different LNP source said Canavan was most likely to fend off rising fury directed at the major parties fuelling support for Pauline Hanson.

Canavan presents an “easy narrative for us”, the source said.

Ashby told this masthead that “at this point in time, I haven’t put my mind to it” (standing for Capricornia) and said he would make a decision in the new year.

Traditionally a seat that leaned towards Labor, Capricornia was won by Landry for the Liberal National Party of Queensland at the last five elections.

At the last poll in 2025, she recorded a primary vote of 36.56 per cent while her Labor opponent Emily Mawson recorded 31.9 per cent, and the One Nation candidate Cheryl Kempton scored 15.5 per cent. While that is a solid result for One Nation, the party’s standing in the polls has since surged and it would expect to secure a higher primary vote. Landry’s two-party preferred vote was 55.8 per cent to Labor’s 43.41 per cent.

Mawson, who increased Labor’s primary by nearly 4 per cent at the 2025 poll, is highly rated by the party internally. A source with knowledge of internal decisions told this masthead Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is eager for Mawson to run once again.

With One Nation surging in the polls, it is also possible that the LNP’s second candidate on its Senate ticket at the next election – which is supposed to be Canavan – could be knocked out after preferences.

Psephologist Antony Green said that, of any state, Queensland was probably the most likely to elect two One Nation senators at the expense of the LNP.

“In Capricornia, Canavan would be running on his name rather than on the party ticket. He has a profile as party leader, he has a profile in Queensland,” he said.

“To win the seat, One Nation would have to lead on first preferences as Labor wouldn’t help them with preferences.”

If Canavan were to relinquish his spot on the Senate ticket, preselection would be reopened for the second slot to allow the Queensland party division to vote once again.

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