Source : INDIA TODAY NEWS
Weather models are pointing to a clear pickup in monsoon activity over central India in the coming days, with widespread moderate to heavy rain likely across parts of the region through mid-August.
Accumulated rainfall forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), show substantial rain building up over Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, parts of Maharashtra and adjoining areas between roughly August 8-15.
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Some pockets could record accumulated rainfall of more than 100-200 mm, while isolated higher totals are possible over parts of the Northeast.
The developing wet spell comes even as the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has indicated that the monsoon season could end below normal, with seasonal rainfall projected at around 90% of the long-period average.
Developing El Nino conditions in the Pacific are among the factors influencing the broader seasonal outlook.
But a below-normal monsoon does not mean every week will be dry. Short-lived weather systems can still produce intense rainfall over specific regions.
WHAT ARE WEATHER MODELS FORECASTING?
ECMWF’s ensemble and deterministic forecasts currently show the monsoon trough and associated low-pressure systems supporting a stronger flow of moisture into Central India.
The core monsoon zone is likely to see widespread moderate to heavy rain, while northern and northeastern parts of the country could see more scattered but significant rainfall.
These medium-range forecasts are used by meteorologists alongside the IMD’s short- and extended-range forecasts.
Recent IMD bulletins have already reported heavy to very heavy rain at isolated places over East Rajasthan, Odisha, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and neighbouring areas, pointing to an active phase.
WHY DOES AN ACTIVE SPELL MATTER?
Even if the seasonal rainfall total remains below normal, individual bursts of heavy rain can have a major impact.
Intense rainfall over a short period can also cause waterlogging, flooding and disruption in vulnerable areas.
Climate scientists have also warned that a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture, potentially making individual rainfall events more intense.
In other words, a below-normal monsoon season does not necessarily translate into uniformly dry conditions.
The coming week could therefore bring a distinctly active phase over the heart of India. However, rainfall forecasts can shift as fresh observations are fed into weather models.
The IMD’s daily and extended-range forecasts remain the most important guide as the situation evolves.
For now, it’s clear that even against a potentially below-normal monsoon season, Central India could see a significant burst of rain in the days ahead.
– Ends
SOURCE :- TIMES OF INDIA
