The Rising part II: We know how this movie should end, but wet track could deliver Everest boilover

Punters who panicked when Ka Ying Rising got edged out by Ninja in last week’s Randwick trial have clearly forgotten how this movie ends.

Twelve months ago, the world’s best sprinter put on a similar showing, blowing heavily after a quiet trial before exploding on race day to capture the $20 million Everest.

Trainer David Hayes and jockey Zac Purton aren’t sweating minor details; they know their generational champion is right where he needs to be to secure back-to-back Everests. He is simply too fast, too lethal at the 1200 metres and remains the undisputed horse to beat.

However, the path to greatness is rarely easy, and if we get a wet race, Tempted looms as the hardest to beat.

The brilliant mare has gone from strength to strength since finishing runner-up last year. Her breathtaking performance to win the group 2 Premiere Stakes showed she is a much more mature, dominant force this time around.

If there is any vulnerability from the favourite on a rain-affected track, Tempted is the weapon engineered to exploit it. She hasn’t been beaten since this day last year when second as a three-year-old filly.

Following closely in the market are two elite threats, Jimmystar and Joliestar.

Jimmysstar enters the fray on the back of a dazzling performance to capture the group 1 Manikato Stakes at Caulfield. Having run an incredibly brave third in last year’s Everest, after being caught wide for the entire trip, he has proven his toughness at this level.

The unflappable David Hayes was characteristically confident about Ka Ying Rising, provided the track remains in the soft range. A most descriptive word was used by Hayes at Tuesday’s barrier draw when asked if the track could be worse than a heavy 8.

“Champions do what others can’t … even if they may require flippers,” he said.

One horse it would be remiss of me not to mention is an old nemesis of mine, Angel Capital.

This horse is the ultimate tease and I have no doubt that he will be up to his old tricks with an eye-catching finish.

Crusader on top in open Caulfield Cup

Betting is wide open for the $6 million Caulfield Cup after the barrier draw, which added layers of complexity to what was already a classic spring puzzle.

However, I’ve still got Cosmic Crusader on top.

Drawing gate 17 means his mission got a whole lot harder and William Pike will have to earn every cent of his riding fee. He won’t look to panic early and instead slide in for some cover and count on the horse’s explosive turn of foot to put the race to bed.

The barrier draw has meant a slight drift in the market, however the sheer engine under the hood means he can still crush this field given a genuine tempo.

We are often fickle as punters, and those of us who watched Zahrann trudge through the Flemington mud might be tempted to put a line through him, but to do so would be ignoring a crucial lesson: track conditions can change everything.

He looked completely lost on that heavy deck in a performance that had casual observers running for the hills. Yet, a couple of weeks prior he was the talk of the town, steamrolling his rivals to win the Naturalism Stakes. And don’t forget, jockey Ethan Brown has bypassed The Everest on live chance Jimmystar to partner Zahrann.

Then there is She’s A Hustler. Like Zahrann, she loathed the heavy Flemington going last start, but trainer Grahame Begg has kept the faith knowing the New Zealand-bred mare is a different animal when she can hear her hooves rattling. She absolutely relished the Caulfield 2400 metres when winning the Zipping Classic in November and with her plummeting to 53kgs, at a track and distance where she produced a career peak, there is certainly a case to be made for the mare at big odds.

Defending champion Half Yours has barrier seven, giving rider Mark Zahra plenty of options. Carrying 57.5kgs is a big ask, but with an economical trip, he can certainly figure.

Enfjaar landed the ultimate wildcard inside draw. He has the tactical speed to hold an early position if he wants and his elite European staying power makes him a chance at double-figure odds.

Boilover brewing to save bookies from wipeout

It will be a nightmare for the bookies if Ka Ying Rising ($1.50) defends his crown and Australian darling Autumn Glow ($1.30) continues her winning streak as they have been anchored heavily by punters in multi bets.

Punters will also load up on them to both win with about $2 on offer for both to score.

But I feel an upset brewing.

A small, five-horse field in the King Charles III Stakes over the famous Randwick mile will produce a tactical affair.

It looks to me as though all the signs are pointing to defending champ Ceolwulf, with soft conditions to suit.

He also performs at his peak when he races with the blinkers on for the first time in a campaign and trainer Joe Pride has left them off him this spring, but he puts them on tomorrow.

Unfortunately, the scratching of Pride of Jenni will take a lot of speed, and perhaps a lot of excitement, out of the race, and Ceowulf does love a hot tempo.

That said, he has won this race in both 2024 and 2025 and he’ll stalk the mighty mare Autumn Glow wherever she goes.

I think he might just do it again, making it a third King Charles III.

Ally Mosley is an expert analyst for Sky Racing and presenter for the Nine Network.