Trump’s entered a new phase, the unmaking of his presidency

At this moment in Donald Trump’s second term, as he weighs new talks with Iran against massive new strikes, Trump has entered a new phase: the unmaking of his presidency. Although he wages virtually absolute power as president to achieve his goals, Trump is flailing and failing.

The war of choice Trump promised would be over in a few weeks is now in its sixth month with no end in sight. Trump is trapped. Last week, he told his cabinet, “Well, they [Iran] always want to talk, but they break their words so often … All they do is make me angry.”

Trump also told his cabinet that he wants Iran to surrender. “We will be hitting them very hard. And you know at some point, they’re going to say, ‘We just can’t take it any more’.”

Trump suspended that threat over the weekend. He now sees “agreed perimeters” of a deal. “This would include the Immediate, Complete, and Total OPENING OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT, and an end to Iran’s nuclear threat,” he wrote on social media. But Trump has signalled – again – his readiness to blast his way out of this war with the brutal campaign he threatened in April to end Iran’s civilisation.

On February 28, Trump believed he could triumph – quickly – with staggering force to break Iran. Addressing his nation, Trump was clear. “The United States military is undertaking a massive and ongoing operation to prevent this very wicked, radical dictatorship from threatening America and our core national security interests.” Iran’s military would be destroyed. Iran’s nuclear ambitions would be ended: “We will ensure that Iran does not obtain a nuclear weapon. It’s a very simple message. They will never have a nuclear weapon.”

Trump also wanted regime change for the Iranian people. “America is backing you with overwhelming strength and devastating force,” the president said on February 28 in a message to Iranians. “Now is the time to seize control of your destiny, and to unleash the prosperous and glorious future that is close within your reach. This is the moment for action. Do not let it pass.”

All of Trump’s objectives have failed to date. The regime in Iran has changed – for the worse. It is more hardline than ever. Iran has not been defeated militarily. Trump did not anticipate Iran would seize control of the Strait of Hormuz, triggering worldwide economic damage. Trump did not anticipate that Iranian missiles would expand the war and attack countries across the Persian Gulf. Iran has not given up its nuclear materials. Trump’s ceasefire agreement with Iran was shredded. Trump’s good friend, President Xi of China, is sending weapons to Iran.

In absorbing all that has unfolded, America’s allies are reaching the conclusion that the US is on the brink of suffering a strategic defeat. The United States has lost its leadership of the free world.

Trump has failed elsewhere too. Trump has failed to settle the war in Ukraine. He agreed to give Ukraine Patriot missile technology but has now walked it back. Trump has announced a huge agreement for Gaza to have Hamas disarmed, a new governing authority for Gaza established and Israel to withdrawal from the territory. But neither Hamas nor Israel have accepted the terms. Trump announced a major nuclear energy deal with Saudi Arabia, but a day later imposed a requirement that Saudi Arabia recognise Israel and join the Abraham Accords. The nuclear deal is on ice.

At home, Trump revels in his exercise of absolute power. He plasters his name on anything he can get his hands on: US passports, airports, government buildings, child savings accounts, pharmaceutical prescription programs. Trump has raised more than $US800 million from the most powerful companies across the economy to support his agenda. Trump endorsed a $20 billion FIFA restructuring deal with his football mate, Gianni Infantino, and involving members of Trump’s family. It imploded in 72 hours. In a scheme that reeks of insider trading, Trump is selling early access to his Truth Social posts, which very often move markets, for a fee of $100,000 per month.

The voters are taking their measure of all this, and Trump is paying an enormous political price. His approval rating is shockingly low. The only president more unpopular than Trump at this point in the second term was Richard Nixon on the eve of his resignation over the Watergate scandal.

The midterm elections are always a referendum on the president and his party. Voters are ready to vote Democratic in November. Voters believe Trump is not paying enough attention to the country’s problems. Most Americans believe the Iran war has not been worth fighting. Compared to Trump’s win in 2024, Republicans are not excited about voting in November.

Trump’s battle plan is to attack the Democrats as “communists” and hard left radical extremists, from the mayor of New York City to winners in primaries for inner-city seats in the House of Representatives. The consensus of expert analyst opinion right now is that the Democrats will win the House by a narrow margin. The whole Democrats party has not gone radical left, but a “red scare” campaign could keep them, especially in states like Michigan, Texas, Ohio and Iowa, from taking the four Republican Senate seats they need to win control of Congress.

In the 1960s, legendary journalist Theodore H. White chronicled what he termed “the making” of three presidents – John Kennedy, Lyndon Johnson and Richard Nixon. What is unfolding now is the unmaking of Trump’s presidency.

Bruce Wolpe is a senior fellow at the University of Sydney’s United States Studies Centre. He has served on the Democratic staff in the US Congress and as chief of staff to former prime minister Julia Gillard.

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