Source : INDIA TODAY NEWS
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most contested fronts in the Iran war, with Tehran and Washington both claiming the upper hand over the strategic waterway. Away from the competing claims, shipping data points to a different reality. More than 80 per cent of vessels transiting through the strait over the past two weeks have used a shipping route along the Omani side of the waterway, according to Kpler data cited by CNN. The route is authorised by the United Nations but has been strongly opposed by Iran.
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The shift indicates Tehran may no longer have the same level of control over traffic through the strait that it exercised earlier in the conflict.
“It increasingly looks like Iran has at least partially lost control of the strait,” said Homayoun Falakshahi, head of crude oil analysis at Kpler, as per CNN.
SHIPS SHIFT TO OMANI ROUTE
The change is significant because the Omani route had seen virtually no shipping activity a month ago, according to Kpler. Iran has claimed control over navigation through the strait and attacked vessels that attempted to use routes along the northern coast of Oman. Despite the risks, many ships are now using the Omani side, relying on the presence of US naval forces for protection.
The shift has also affected Iran’s ability to impose charges on vessels passing through the waterway. Tehran had previously sought to collect transit fees from ships using the strait. But with vessels increasingly avoiding the route preferred by Iran, those efforts have become harder to enforce.
“Iran’s request to collect tolls is something that most Middle East folks don’t want to do and haven’t been doing,” said Dan Pickering, founder and chief investment officer at Pickering Energy Partners, as per CNN.
The shift also exposes the limits of any simple claim to control over Hormuz. Iran can still threaten vessels and disrupt shipping, but the US naval presence is giving commercial traffic an alternative route and a degree of protection.
OIL TANKERS TAKE EXTRA RISKS
Oil producers in the Gulf are also changing the way they move crude through the region. Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have chartered Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) to move oil out of the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz. The crude is then reportedly transferred to other tankers outside the danger zone in the Gulf of Oman.
Some of these vessels have taken additional steps to avoid detection.
To reduce the risk of Iranian attacks, tankers have switched off their transponders, sometimes for weeks at a time. This creates “dark traffic” and makes it difficult for conventional shipping trackers to establish exactly how much oil is moving through the waterway.
Some of those vessels can still be detected using satellite imagery and other systems, but tracking them becomes more difficult once their identification signals are switched off. That creates a major problem when trying to assess who actually controls the strait.
US CLAIMS HIGHER OIL FLOWS
The US, however, says more oil is moving through the region than some traditional shipping estimates suggest. With its naval forces operating in and around the Strait of Hormuz, President Donald Trump claimed US has total control of it. On Tuesday, he went further, saying he would like to take control of Hormuz. He also shared a map of the strait, declaring it “new US territory”.
US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said last week that oil shipments through the strait, combined with cargoes rerouted around the waterway, totalled about 15 million barrels per day over a one-week period.
That figure is considerably closer to the roughly 20 million barrels per day that moved through the region before the war. The numbers have strengthened Washington’s argument that Iran has failed to completely shut down the waterway despite repeated threats and attacks. But they do not necessarily support Trump’s claim that the US has complete control.
The reality appears more complicated.
Iran’s continued attacks on shipping, combined with oil flows that remain below pre-war levels, indicate that the US does not have unrestricted control over the waterway. At the same time, the growing number of vessels using the Omani route suggests Iran is also struggling to enforce its own preferred terms.
NEITHER SIDE HAS FULL CONTROL
The emerging picture is therefore less about one side having absolute control and more about a shifting balance of power.
Iran still has the ability to threaten commercial shipping and impose risks on vessels attempting to pass through the waterway. That threat alone can force ships to change their routes, switch off transponders or rely on naval escorts. But its ability to prevent vessels from using alternative routes appears to have weakened.
The situation is further complicated by separate talks between Iran and Oman over navigation through the waterway. The two countries share coastlines along the Strait of Hormuz and have been discussing ways to restore freedom of navigation. Those discussions are taking place without direct US participation, a development that has not pleased Trump.
It remains unclear whether any agreement between Tehran and Muscat would change shipping patterns or alter the balance of control in the strait. For now, the data points to a reality where neither Iran nor the US can credibly claim complete control.
– Ends
SOURCE :- TIMES OF INDIA
